Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

補回上升裂口走勢更為健康

Monday, July 28, 2025 Views634

港股連升三周,恆指在上周四最高見到25735創年內新高,連升五個交易日。周五呈現回吐,收報25388點,按周上升2.3%;國企指數和恒生科技指數按周分別上升1.8%和5.5%。滬深股市方面,上證指數曾升越3600點,上周五收報3593點,按周上升1.7%。深成指和創指按周分別上升2.3%和2.8%。經濟數據方面,今年首6個月中國規模以上工業企業獲利按年跌1.8%,前值跌1.1%。其中,6月規模以上工業企業利潤按年跌4.3%,前值跌9.1%。值得注意的是:6月末,規模以上工業企業應收賬款26.69萬億元,同比增長7.8%,應收賬款平均回收期為69.8天,同比增加3.9天。產成品存貨6.6萬億元,增長3.1%,產成品存貨周轉天數為20.4天,同比增加0.1天。此外,人民銀行公布7月貸款市場報價利率(LPR)維持不變,符合市場預期。1年期LPR維持3厘,5年期以上LPR保持3.5厘。考慮到5月降準降息落地後,總量政策進入成效觀察期,疊加政策利率七天逆回購操作利率未有變動,LPR維持不變符合情理。


美日達成15%關稅協議,對美歐達成貿易協議謹慎樂觀,美股標普500指數和納指上周屢創新高。標普500指數上周收報6,388點,連升五日,按周上升1.5%;納指收報21,108點,按周上升1%。道指收報44,901點,按周升1.3%。經濟數據方面,美國7月Markit綜合PMI初值從6月的52.9升至7月的54.6,創下今年最快增速,並連續第30個月維持擴張態勢。至於標普服務業PMI初值從6月的52.9躍升至7月的55.2,創下七個月新高,反映消費需求旺盛,經濟增長動能依然良好。6月耐用品訂單初值按月跌9.3%,跌幅少於市場預期10.7%。核心耐用品訂單初值按月升0.2%,高於市場預期0.1%。7月第三周首次申請失業救濟人數按周減少4,000人至21.7萬人,遠低於市場預期的增加至22.7萬人,為連續第六周下降,降至4月份以來的最低水平,延續美國勞動力市場在今年較早前短暫震盪之後相對強勁的表現。


本周四大關注點包括:中美財長在斯德哥爾摩舉行的會談、聯儲局議息會議(雖然市場普遍預期利率將維持不變)、經濟數據(中國官方和財新PMI、美國ADP及非農就業數據、PCE物價指數、密歇根大學消費者信心指數等)及公司季績。說回港股,恆指升近26000點見到阻力,料需先作整固才有力挑戰以及突破26000貼,如能補回上周三的上升裂口,走勢會更為健康。該上升裂口濶98點,介於25130和25228之間

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
新闻稿
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us