Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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考驗50天線

Monday, August 4, 2025 Views804

港股恆指上周連跌四天,累跌跌1054點,周五收報24508,按周下跌3.5%。國指和科指按周分別下跌3.8%和4.9%。其中,科指更連跌7日,創2021年7月8日後最長連跌。三大指數都終止了連續三周的升勢。不過,總結7月仍錄得上升,恆指升2.9%,國指升2.4%,科指升2.8%。滬深股市上周亦下跌,上證指數3600點得而復失,按周下跌0.9%,而深成指則跌1.6%。但總結7月,上證指數升3.7%,深成指升5.2%,創指升幅更達到8.3%。上周公布的中國經濟數據都差於預期,7月官方製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為49.3,遜於市場預期的持平,比6月下降0.4個百分點,連續第四個月處於收縮區間,並創4月以來三個月新低。7月份官方非製造業商務活動指數降至50.1,比上月下降0.4個百分點,略遜市場預期的50.2。此外,7月標普全球中國(原財新中國)製造業PMI為49.5,低於市場預期的50.4和前值的50.4。其中,新接業務量增速減弱,導致製造商在3個月內第二次縮減產量。


 

美國白宮公布了各國關稅,稅率由10%至40%不等,經濟學家擔心將令美國家庭平圴支出增加,推高通脹和失業率。地緣政治方面,美國總統特朗普上周五表示,已下令將兩艘核潛艇部署在俄羅斯附近地區,以回應俄羅斯前總統梅德韋傑夫的威脅。迭加美國7月非農就業人口新增職位只有7.3萬,低於預期的10.4萬,前值6月份由14.7萬大幅下修至1.4萬,蒸發了13.3萬份職位;失業率由4.1%升至4.2%。此外,美國7月ISM製造業指數由6月49回落至48,低於市場預期的49.5。美股受多重利淡因素拖累,上周五大幅下跌,道指

曾瀉790點或1.8%,低見43,340點,最終收跌542點或1.2%,報43,588點;納指跌幅更大,收挫472點或2.2%,報20,650點;標普500指數收跌101點或1.6%,報6,238點。總結一周,三大指數都跌超過2%,當中道指是4月初特朗普宣布「對等關稅」以來表現最差的一周。

 

本周美股有四大關注點,首先是美國最新關稅在本周四(8月7日)生效,留意生效前各國與美國的談判進展。二是聯儲局官員談話;上周聯儲局議息會議決定維持利率不變,鮑威爾講話偏鷹,打擊9月減息希望。三是經濟數據,包括第二季非農勞動生產力及單位勞工成本、7月ISM非製造業指數、6月工廠訂單及貿易餘額。四是公司業績,本周將公布業績的美國企業多達124家。截至上周四(7月31日),已有63.2%的標普500企業公布了業績,68.5%營收優於預期,平均增長7.08%;82.8%獲利優於預期,平均增長10.02%。預計標普500企業第二季獲利將增長6.4%,以科技、通訊服務增長力道最強。

 

說回港股,恆指10天和20移動平均線相繼失守後,未來可能進一步考驗50天線的支持,該線現時處於24200附近。此外,恆指不僅補回了7月23日介於25130和25228之間的上升裂口,還一併補回7月21日介於24826點和24845點之間的另一個上升裂口。再往下看,還有一個出現於6月24日的上升裂口,該上升裂口闊144點,介於23689點和23833點之間。

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