Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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26000點恐最終失守

Monday, September 29, 2025 Views516

港股上周表現偏軟,恆指多次下試26000點,周五收報26128點,按周下跌1.6%。國指收報9303點,按周下跌1.8%。恆指和國指都結束了連續三周的升勢。科指收報6195點,按周跌1.6%,結束了連續七周的升勢。滬深股市上周亦見反覆,總結一周,上證指數微升8點,深成指升1.1%;創指升1.9%。本周將公布中國9月官方製造業PMI,預測49.6,前值49.4;9月官方非製造業PMI預測50.2,前值50.3。同時亦將公布中國9月標普製造業PMI,預測49.9,前值50.5,以及中國9月標普服務業PMI,前值53。

 

上周公布的美國經濟數據略見改善,但聯儲局主席鮑威爾稱股市估值相當高,為美股帶來沽壓,三大指數於上周一盤中及收市均創歷史新高後,周二至周四連跌三日,周五反彈。總結一周,三大指數報跌,跌幅均不足1%。今年第二季美國經濟年化增長率為3.8%,大幅高於第二次估算的3.3%,並且是自2023年第三季度以來的最佳表現,主要反映在個人消費支出(PCE)從第二次估算的1.6%上修至2.5%。8月耐用品訂單按月上升2.9%,扭轉了7月修正後的2.7%下滑,且好於市場預期的0.5%下降,是三個月來首次出現商品訂單的增長,主要受到運輸設備上升7.9%所推動。另外,截至9月第三周,初次失業救濟申請人數減少14,000,降至21.8萬人,遠低於市場預期的23.5萬人,並且是兩個月以來的最低水平。通脹數據方面,8月個人消費支出(PCE)物價指數上漲0.3%,符合市場預期;剔除食品和能源的核心PCE物價指數增長0.2%,增幅與7月相同,亦符合預期。按年計,整體個人消費支出通脹率從7月和6月的2.6%加速至2.7%,為六個月以來的最高水平,而核心個人消費支出通脹率則穩定於2.9%。該兩項年率數據均符合預期。

 

本周關注美國政府會否停擺,因美國政府本財政年度將於本周二(30日)結束,意味著如果國會不通過新的撥款方案,政府將在本周三(10月1日)進入停擺狀態。目前共和黨提出一項短期撥款法案在眾議院獲得通過,但未能達到參議院通過所需的60票,由於共和黨在參議院只擁有53個席位,因此需要至少7名民主黨人的支持才能通過法案。若出現停擺而且持續時間較長,可能導致投資者評估宏觀經濟趨勢所需的關鍵數據延遲發布甚至取消,例如月度就業報告與通脹數據。同時亦關注美國政府對藥品、半導體、飛機、關鍵礦產、中重型卡車以及其他產品的關稅政策,美國政府正對機器人、工業機械和醫療設備的進口產品展開了調查,為擴大關税鋪路。

 

本周將有一系列重要經濟數據公布,周三和周五分別公布9月ISM製造業和服務業PMI,若確認S&P全球初步PMI顯示的業務活動弱勢,可能強化市場對明年需超一次降息的觀點。周三ADP私人就業報告將提供就業先行信號,周五的9月非農就業報告將是重中之重,前兩月報告均遠低於預期,並伴隨大幅下修,整體就業增長趨勢指向顯著放緩。

說回港股,上周恆指走勢轉弱,失守10天移動平均線,險守20天線和26000點,9天相對強弱指數(RSI)亦見跌穿50中軸,26000點恐最終失守,下一步將考驗25700點以至50天線的支持,該線現時處於25545點附近。

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